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Given an F1 season of a varied number of races, who would win the Championship?

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F1 Combinator

Inspired by Chain Bear's 2019 Remixed! - The 27399 ways Max Verstappen could win the 2019 season video.

The premise is that the F1 season is instead made up of a subset of the normal. Depending on which races are chosen, who would win?

For example, if the 2020 season was just 1 race long, there's 17 possible seasons, with Hamilton winning 11 of them, Bottas and Verstappen 2, and Perez & Gasly one each. What about if the season was five races long? There's 6188 of these, with Hamilton winning 5813, Bottas 307, and Verstappen 62. And so on.

Run python3 f1.py 2020.csv. This will print an update followed by the first 10 wins encountered by each driver (this should show some interesting seasons), the totals for each driver grouped by season length and finally the total championship wins.

The results are as follows:

Driver Championships Percentage
Hamilton 129419 98.74
Bottas 1389 1.06
Verstappen 181 0.14
Perez 32 0.02
Sainz 12 0.01
Gasly 5 0.00
Stroll 4 0.00
Ocon 2 0.00
Ties 27 0.00

Another dominant season for Hamilton!

Interestingly, both Sainz, Stroll and Ocon all win championships despite not winning a race.

Driver Wins
Sainz Italy, Sakhir, Italy, Sakhir and one of Austria, Bahrain, Emilia Romagna, Portugal, Eifel or Abu Dhabi,
Italy, Sakhir, and a pair of Eifel, Abu Dhabi, Eifel, Sakhir, Turkey, Abu Dhabi, or Austria, Bahrain
Gasly Italy (unsurprisingly), Eifel, Italy, Portugal, Italy, Italy, Bahrain and Italy, Abu Dhabi
Stroll Italy, Sakhir and one of Spain, Hungary, 70th Anniversary, or Styria
Ocon Belgium, Sakhir or Britain, Sakhir

Sainz (5) and Perez (8) win four-race championships, along with the top 3. No-one other than Hamilton can win a season of 10 or more races, while Stroll can only win a three-race season.

Season Length HAM BOT VER PER SAI GAS STR OCO
1 11 2 2 1 - 1 - -
2 84 19 7 11 1 4 - 2
3 559 66 26 12 6 - 4 -
4 2132 181 48 8 5 - - -
5 5813 307 62 - - - - -
6 11998 346 32 - - - - -
7 19171 273 4 - - - - -
8 24168 142 - - - - - -
9 24257 53 - - - - - -
10 19448 - - - - - - -
11 12376 - - - - - - -
12 6188 - - - - - - -
13 2380 - - - - - - -
14 680 - - - - - - -
15 136 - - - - - - -
16 17 - - - - - - -
17 1 - - - - - - -

There are 27 ties, which are where the points and countbacks between the top two drivers are the same.

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Given an F1 season of a varied number of races, who would win the Championship?

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