Tipcap calculation

[kolesnevg]

Hi,

I'm trying to develop various trading strategies, and a crucial element of this strategy is predicting the commission parameters that the oracle pays when creating a transaction to update prices on the Base network. The key parameter here is tipCap.

Based on the source code of block_history_estimator.go, tipCap is calculated as the value that is greater than X% of transactions over Y blocks. This rule works in about 50% of cases, but for example, for block 25961829, it doesn't seem to work—the actual value is slightly lower than what my algorithm predicts.

Could you please advise what other factors might influence this calculation?